BRASILIA/SAO PAULO/RIO DE JANEIRO, — Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro will face President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the second round of Brazil’s presidential election.
Bolsonaro won about 47% of valid votes in Sunday’s first round. Lula received about 44.9%, with almost all votes counted. Brazil will hold the runoff on October 25.
The result surprised several private polling firms. Most surveys had shown Lula ahead by about three percentage points before the vote.
Bolsonaro Exceeds Poll Expectations
Flavio Bolsonaro is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The former president is serving a 27-year sentence after his conviction over a plot to overturn the 2022 election.
Flavio now faces Lula in a closely watched runoff. His strong first-round result could also affect Brazil’s financial markets. The Brazilian currency and stocks have gained during the campaign as investors watched the race.
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“The pollsters missed badly,” said Robert Muggah, co-founder of the Igarape Institute.
The final result gives Bolsonaro a stronger position than many polls had suggested. However, the runoff will bring a new campaign and a different voting contest.
Cost of Living Shapes Election
The campaign focused heavily on the cost of living, crime and corruption.
Lula has faced pressure from voters over high living costs and household debt. Gang activity has also remained a major concern in many parts of Brazil.
At the same time, Brazil has recorded lower unemployment and inequality. However, these gains did not remove economic concerns among voters.
Bolsonaro has focused on the cost of living and public security. Lula has expanded welfare support and proposed new debt relief for families.
Brazil also faces concerns over public spending and debt. Public debt stands above 82% of GDP, while the government expects economic growth of 2% this year and 2.3% next year.
Protest Vote Helps Bolsonaro
Bolsonaro said before the vote that he expected support from voters who wanted to prevent Lula’s Workers’ Party from remaining in power.
Some voters told Reuters they changed their choice during the campaign.
Thaise Lima, a 41-year-old lawyer in Sao Paulo, said her main goal was to remove Lula’s Workers’ Party from office. She said she was considering Bolsonaro despite not seeing him as the best candidate.
Fernando Tempel, a 49-year-old management consultant, also said he voted for Bolsonaro after initially supporting another candidate.
Political analyst Rafael Favetti said the protest vote helped Bolsonaro in the first round. He also said Bolsonaro would need to attract new voters in the runoff.
Runoff Campaign Begins
The October 25 runoff will now decide between Bolsonaro and Lula.
Both candidates will seek support from voters who backed other candidates in the first round. They will also face renewed debate over the economy, crime, public spending and corruption.
The election has drawn attention beyond Brazil. A Bolsonaro victory could strengthen ties with US President Donald Trump. Lula’s return to office would maintain his current foreign policy approach.
However, the final result will depend on the second-round vote.
